The ‘gun on the table’ that Donald Trump has been threatening to fire at Mexico, Canada, and China will remain unfired for a while longer, although the president will load the ammunition tomorrow. When he took office, the US president announced that he would impose a 25% tariff on his two neighboring countries on February 1. However, with just hours remaining until that deadline, the White House surprised everyone by including China in the group, with an additional 10% tariff.
White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt stated that the president would sign the order tomorrow to impose the tariffs, in response to “the tons of illegal fentanyl that they have produced and distributed to our country.” Leavitt deferred to the official text to reveal the extent of these tariffs and which products will or will not be affected.
Two hours earlier, several sources had told Reuters that these tariffs would not come into effect until March 1, giving a one-month window to negotiate with both countries and implement them more carefully if no agreement is reached within that time. The agency describes conversations at the White House as “very fluid” and warns that no formal decision will be made until Trump speaks this Saturday.
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However, the spokesperson firmly rejected these reports and promised that the tariffs would come into effect on February 1, as Trump had promised. Immediately, the markets turned sharply red, and the dollar strengthened amid fears that the trade war might officially begin.
According to an analysis by the Moody’s rating agency, the initiation of the trade war would cause Mexico to lose one point of its annual growth in 2025, dropping from a 1.3% expansion to 0.6%. Canada, meanwhile, is in the midst of a political crisis, with elections expected in the spring or summer. They are also prepared to respond: the regional president of Ontario, Doug Ford, has threatened to cut electricity sales to New York if the tariffs are imposed.